Let’s say you’re a new parent. You’re a US citizen, and you can’t help but wonder: Will my kid grow up to be President? How about a doctor? A football player? How likely are different options?

Below, I give some numbers for how likely a random American is to wind up doing different things. Unless otherwise stated, numbers are for a whole lifetime: eg., the odds of working for Google is the chance that a person will ever work for Google, at any point in their career. Most of these are based on “back of the envelope” statistics: they’re supported by real data, but they may not be exactly right, and some are probably off by a factor of two or so.

A very important caveat: all these numbers assume that the world remains as it is. For example, by the time a kid born today is old enough to be President, the US may be a protectorate of the Chinese Technocracy, dooming his chances. This is intentional: I aim to give a picture of the US as it exists today.

(1 in 1: Certainty)

Born male (or female): 1 in 2
Graduates from college: 1 in 3
Born non-white: 1 in 3.5

(1 in 10: One person at a family dinner)

Being a millionaire, in a randomly chosen year: 1 in 15
Born gay: 1 in 30
1300 / 1600 SAT score: 1 in 50
Goes to law school: 1 in 80

(1 in 100: One person in an apartment building)

Has an income of \$400K or more, in a randomly chosen year: 1 in 120
Lives in Manhattan, in a randomly chosen year: 1 in 190
Becomes a doctor: 1 in 230
Goes to an Ivy League school: 1 in 250
Gets a college degree in computer science: 1 in 350
1500 / 1600 on the SAT: 1 in 700

(1 in 1,000: One person in a small town, or city block)

Works as a Google engineer: 1 in 2,500
Perfect SAT score: 1 in 4,000
Gets a Ph.D. in physics: 1 in 5,000
Elected as a state legislator: 1 in 7,000
Becomes an Ivy League professor: 1 in 8,000
Is worth more than \$30 million, in a randomly chosen year: 1 in 9,000

(1 in 10,000: One person in an average-sized town)

Funded by Y Combinator: 1 in 12,000
Plays in the NFL: 1 in 15,000
CEO of Fortune 500 company: 1 in 60,000

(1 in 100,000: One person in a small city)

Is elected to Congress: 1 in 110,000
Becomes a billionaire: 1 in 200,000
Joins Skull and Bones: 1 in 250,000
Becomes a US Senator: 1 in 600,000
Becomes a cabinet member: 1 in 800,000
Becomes President: 1 in 20,000,000

(If you disagree with any of these numbers, please post in the comments – preferably with sources – and I’ll go back and edit if you’re right. Same applies if there are any cool ones I’ve missed.)